VW has hung onto the Citi for five generations. What will replace it? Volkswagen South Africa is playing a canny game on how it will replace the Citi, a car — love it or hate it — that contributes a huge chunk to the Uitenhage carmaker's coffers every year as it has now done for over 25 years…

What started as a canny marketing strategy to retain the outgoing Golf 1 as a bargain entry option when Golf 2 arrived, Citi will soon have lasted into the Golf 6 realm, but let's not dwell on that now — it's almost time to look ahead…

VW has told us that Citi will retire in the not too distant future. Whether that's later this year or next, we're not quite sure, but the bottom line is that car has to be replaced. But what will replace it?

» See the likely suspects, Vw Gol and VW Up!

We know that there are prototypes lurking inside Uitenhage where they are likely already tooling up for New Citi production. The car will most likely be locally built to replace old Citi production alongside the plant's new Polo export model. But we don't know what it is — and it could be one of two cars…

The first — and our favourite — is the five-door version of the next Lupo you would maybe know as the Up! Prototype. (Like Scirocco had an Iroc concept using just a few letters on the car's name, Up! Predicts Lupo.)

The other car is the latest in a long line of Brazilian Citi-level Volkswagens called Gol.

Either will make a huge step forward for Uitenhage and will allow the company to at last offer a full range of modern and up to date cars rather than being lumbered with an archaic vintage car it has somehow successfully managed to extend way beyond any reasonable shelf life.

Is new Lupo a worthy Citi replacement?

First let's consider Lupo. If we do get this one, then it's most exciting news.

That means South Africa would be among the first countries in the world to get the all-new car expected to be launched in the latter half of 2010. Designed to typify those old "Peoples Car" virtues of being a robust, favourable, dependable and classless choice, although it was once intended to be rear driven, Lupo will be front wheel drive after all.

The appealing aspect of Lupo is that the car will come in a whole family of variants — clearly the five-door is the one that would primarily interest VWSA in fulfilling the multifaceted role due to be vacated by the Citi, but it will also come in a three-door city car on a shortened wheelbase as a Toyota iQ or Smart ForTwo rival.

A chic cabriolet would complete the range, which in a South African context would likely see the five-door built in Uitenhage and the other two imported from VW's Slovak Bratislava plant

A compact, modular and simply built car, Lupo is destined to sell from just over R100 000 in Europe, but it is clearly being planned as a world car with certain variants set for manufacture in India and in various offshoots of baby Audis, Seats and Skodas

Part of Lupo's cost saving magic will be its modular design that requires minimal panel change from model to model, while modules of luxury will be added in specific steps.

Lupo will come in two different wheelbases with the three-door boasting a 2500mm dimension for that specification, an overall length of 3.5m, a width of 1650mm and standing 1.5m tall. Lupo will boast a 35-litre fuel tank and a 200-litre boot — two specs that probably stand against it as a Citi replacement. The five-door will have a 2600mm wheelbase and a 3.8m overall length

The brand new design boasts a drag coefficient of 0.33 with a 45kW 110Nm two-valve per cylinder 1.0-litre three-cylinder initially doing duty — and another likely disadvantage from the more powerful Citi. On the Up! Side, Lupo should have a claimed 4.3l/100 km combined cycle for a squeaky-clean 102g/km C02 emissions output

That will be joined by a more appropriate 65kW 165Nm four-valve per cylinder TSI version of the litre-triple and a 60kW 180Nm 1.2-litre three-cylinder turbodiesel good for 3.0l/100km an 80g/km emissions in 2011, with further lower-tech and cheap to build 2.0-litre petrol and 2.4-litre diesels in the frame for developing markets.

All of which suddenly make the Lupo a viable Citi replacement again….

But Gol fits the glove perfectly

While the coming Lupo would make a most exciting case for a Citi replacement, there's another, perhaps far more worthy replacement for the classic…

The Volkswagen Gol is the market leader in Brazil and the latest generation of this tough, simple to manufacture and inexpensive car looks quite the part too. Just considering those criteria alone, we have a really worthy Citi replacement built to suit very similar market needs the Citi so well satisfies — only so much better…

Gol features an easy to maintain transverse engine in a fresh-looking current PQ24 Polo-derived chassis boasting certain refinements from the coming PQ25 model and styled to the latest VW design cues.

All of which is most interesting — Uitenhage already produces the platform of the existing soon to be dropped Polo, while those new components are already being tooled for in the new Polo line…

In Brazil, Gol comes in a basic 1.0-litre and a 70kW 95Nm (104Nm on bioethanol) 1.6-litre EA-111 Volkswagen High Torque unit that produces more grunt in lower engine speeds and turning an Argentinan-built cable-operated five speed manual gearbox. VWSA has however always marched to the beat of its own drum on engines and a local Gol range would probably boast its own SA tried and tested range 1.4 and 1.6-litre engine line-up…

The clearly Renault Sandero-like Gol boasts high finish and quality levels (something the ancient Citi simply cannot match) with neat plastics and trim inside and narrow and elegant shutlines separating its current-looking panels. Rigidity is up 55 percent over the outgoing model (and probably 550 percent better than the tincan-by-2010-levels Citi).

Gol is 3.9m long and rides on a 2470mm wheelbase, it's 1.45m tall and 1660mm wide — which is as close as dammit to the five-door Up! — and it weighs in at an impressive and importantly lightweight 970kg. A more spacious 285-litre boot and a 44-litre fuel tank are also well suited to what Citi drivers would expect from a replacement…

Gol is priced a little sharper than the Renault Sandero in Brazil and by our calculations, should start in the mid-R90 000 bracket for the most basic unit in this market. The likes of air-conditioning, an audio system, power steering, ABS, an onboard computer and power windows will likely be optional although there would probably be a flagship with everything standard, but we reckon VWSA would make the airbag standard across the range here considering current local wants…

So what's the New Citi then?

So, what will it be to replace the Volkswagen CitiGolf in South Africa? The trendy, ultra-modern and yet to be launched Lupo, or the practical, modern and well-proven in the Americas Gol?

Somehow, if we were VWSA, we’d be tooling up for a new Citi based on the Gol. It may not be quite as trendy as Lupo promises, but it is certainly rugged, practical and versatile, it has a larger boot and a bigger tank, and is a bit more spacious.

It's already built and developed and Renault is already doing all the groundwork on introducing just such a car to market anyway, so we’ll be used to this kind of car by the time the VW gets here, too.

And what's more, Gol is based on the old Polo that the VW plant in Uitenhage knows, understands and well loves, with a smattering of ultra-modern next Polo suspension and similar components that the factory is already tooling up for right now.

Sound like a no-brainer to you? Us too — and the best thing is that we will finally have a VW entry offering that is not only built and backed by one of SA's most trusted brands, but it will be an ultra modern new machine too…

Quite frankly, there's no reason at all why both Gol and Lupo do not both eventually find their way onto this market with the Lupo positioned perhaps a bit more exclusively as an import and Gol — or New Citi positioned as a locally built mass-market solution...